MeridianFixed Income
Sign in Request access
Market monitor

What the markets are pricing

Rates, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies — from public official data, refreshed automatically. Study material, not investment advice.

Updated 2026-10-25 05:17 UTC Refreshes every 3 hours · next at 2026-10-25 08:17 UTC
The brief

Curves price higher rates in 4 of 4 major economies

Across the four major central banks, United States, Euro area, United Kingdom and Japan are priced for higher rates. By industry over the past month, United States health care led at +8.4% while China technology lagged at −13.1%. Across fixed income, 20+ year Treasuries returned +0.6% over thirty days against −2.0% for high-yield corporates. In commodities, Natural gas rose +7.7% over the month and Silver fell −16.4%. Policy rates across the emerging markets covered stand at China 3.00%, India 5.50%, Brazil 13.75% and South Africa 7.25%. In currencies, USD/CHF showed the largest move on the day at 0.28% firmer.

  • United States: Federal funds (effective) at 3.88%, with the US Treasury bill and note curve implying +33bp over 1y.
  • Euro area: Deposit facility rate at 2.50%, with the AAA-rated euro area government curve implying +28bp over 1y.
  • United Kingdom: Bank Rate at 3.75%, with the SONIA overnight index swap curve implying +56bp over 1y.
  • Japan: Overnight call rate (target) at 0.75%, with the Japanese government bond curve implying +91bp over 1y.
  • United States: Health care leads at +8.4%, Communication services lags at −6.3%.
  • Europe: Chemicals leads at +6.5%, Banks lags at −12.6%.
  • China: Consumer discretionary leads at −3.9%, Technology lags at −13.1%.
  • Bank of Japan: Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan
  • European Central Bank: Piero Cipollone: Interview with Milano Finanza
Assembled automatically from the data below. ANTHROPIC_API_KEY not set — showing the computed summary.
Developed markets · policy expectations

Cut, hold or hike

These are curve-implied estimates, not probabilities. Each measures the change already priced between a near point and a later point on the same published curve — the slope a market quotes is the expectation it holds. Not forecasts, not a house view, and no substitute for the central banks' own guidance.

United States

Federal Reserve
Hikes priced
3.88% Federal funds (effective) · 2026-10-22
+33bp implied over 1y (1.3 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 4.30% +19bp 0.8
1y 4.44% +33bp 1.3
How this is derived

Change implied between the 1-month bill and the 6- and 12-month points of the Treasury curve.

Curve as at 2026-10-23.

Euro area

European Central Bank
Hikes priced
2.50% Deposit facility rate
+28bp implied over 1y (1.1 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 2.71% +12bp 0.5
1y 2.87% +28bp 1.1
How this is derived

Change implied between the 3-month and the 6- and 12-month points of the AAA euro area curve.

Curve as at 2026-10-22.

United Kingdom

Bank of England
Hikes priced
3.75% Bank Rate · 2026-10-22
+56bp implied over 1y (2.2 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 4.14% +28bp 1.1
1y 4.41% +56bp 2.2
How this is derived

Change implied between the 1-month and the 6- and 12-month points of the SONIA OIS curve — the instrument that most directly prices Bank Rate.

Curve as at 2026-10-22.

Japan

Bank of Japan
Hikes priced
0.75% Overnight call rate (target) · 2026-01-23
+91bp implied over 1y (3.6 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
1y 1.66% +91bp 3.6
2y 1.91% +116bp 4.7
How this is derived

The 1- and 2-year JGB yields measured against the current policy rate. Unlike the other three, this comparison spans two different instruments, so it also carries a term premium — read it as direction, not as a quantity.

Because this comparison spans two instruments rather than two points on one, the figure is not directly comparable with the other three cards.

Maintained figure — this central bank publishes no machine-readable policy-rate feed.

Curve as at 2026-10-22.

Emerging markets

China, India, Brazil and South Africa

Where a central bank publishes machine-readable data it is read live; where it does not — China, India — the policy rate is a maintained figure, labelled as such with the date it was last checked. Growth figures are annual and released with a lag, so each carries its year.

China

People's Bank of China
Maintained
3.00% 1-year Loan Prime Rate · since 2026-06-22
Maintained figure, checked 2026-08-01 — no machine-readable feed is published. Verify at source
Consumer prices, annual
0.06% 2025
GDP growth
5.0% 2025
USD/CNY
6.67 −0.5% 30d
Shanghai Composite −6.4%Hang Seng −8.6%

India

Reserve Bank of India
Maintained
5.50% Policy repo rate · since 2026-06-06
Maintained figure, checked 2026-08-01 — no machine-readable feed is published. Verify at source
Consumer prices, annual
2.40% 2025
GDP growth
7.6% 2025
USD/INR
94.94 −0.5% 30d
Nifty 50 −4.4%

Brazil

Banco Central do Brasil
Live
13.75% Policy rate · as at 2026-10-25
IPCA, 12-month
4.58% 2026-09-01
GDP growth
2.3% 2025
USD/BRL
5.05 −1.5% 30d
Bovespa +8.9%

South Africa

South African Reserve Bank
Live
7.25% Policy rate · as at 2026-10-23
Consumer prices, annual
3.21% 2025
GDP growth
1.1% 2025
USD/ZAR
16.60 +2.8% 30d
Equities

Stocks and equity indices

Closing levels in local currency, with the change on the day and over thirty sessions. The industry breakdown for each of these markets is in the next card.

Equity volatility 19.45 +22.8%
Rate volatility 103.3 +25.8%
US 10-year yield 4.99 +0.3%
S&P 500
United States
7,624USD
−0.52% 30d −0.4%
Euro Stoxx 50
Euro area
6,068EUR
−0.31% 30d −4.1%
FTSE 100
United Kingdom
10,690GBP
−0.32% 30d +0.4%
Nikkei 225
Japan
62,693JPY
−0.34% 30d −5.6%
Shanghai Composite
China
3,690CNY
+0.89% 30d −6.4%
Hang Seng
Hong Kong
23,093HKD
+0.69% 30d −8.6%
Nifty 50
India
22,600INR
−0.39% 30d −4.4%
Bovespa
Brazil
205,083BRL
+0.47% 30d +8.9%
Industry decomposition

Which industries are carrying each market

Thirty-day performance by industry, decomposed per equity index — American industries measured against the S&P 500, European against STOXX Europe 600, Chinese against the large-cap China index. A sector that beat the US market may still have lagged its own. Each industry is represented by a liquid fund that tracks it: a transparent proxy, not constituent-weighted index sector returns, which are licensed and not publicly available.

United States · S&P 500
S&P 500 −0.4%

The full eleven-sector breakdown, measured against the S&P 500.

Health care +8.4% +8.9%
Energy +6.4% +6.9%
Consumer staples +5.9% +6.3%
Materials +0.7% +1.1%
Utilities +0.4% +0.8%
Consumer discretionary +0.1% +0.6%
Real estate −2.0% −1.5%
Financials −2.4% −1.9%
Technology −2.4% −1.9%
Industrials & manufacturing −4.5% −4.1%
Communication services −6.3% −5.9%
Europe · STOXX Europe 600
STOXX Europe 600 −1.4%

European industries measured against STOXX Europe 600, not against the US market.

Chemicals +6.5% +7.9%
Oil & gas +5.3% +6.7%
Retail +5.2% +6.6%
Technology +1.2% +2.7%
Construction & materials −3.7% −2.3%
Automobiles & parts −9.6% −8.1%
Basic resources −12.5% −11.1%
Banks −12.6% −11.1%
China · China large cap
China large cap −6.3%

Chinese industries measured against the large-cap China index.

Consumer discretionary −3.9% +2.4%
Internet −5.9% +0.4%
Mainland A-shares (CSI 300) −8.6% −2.3%
Technology −13.1% −6.8%
Cross-border themes

Industries that do not belong to one market’s sector scheme, measured against the S&P 500.

Infrastructure & construction −4.6% −4.2%
AI & robotics −6.4% −6.0%
Fintech −6.5% −6.1%
Semiconductors −7.3% −6.8%
Clean energy −10.6% −10.2%
Industry headlines
Bars show the 30-day change. The right-hand figure is performance relative to that market’s own index over the same period.
Fixed income

Bond indices

Thirty-day total return by segment. Government bonds are grouped by maturity because duration is what makes them move; credit is split by rating, and the gap between investment grade and high yield is the market’s price of credit risk.

Government, by maturity

The longer the maturity, the more a given move in yields is worth.

20+ year Treasuries Long duration +0.6%
Inflation-linked (TIPS) Real yield +0.4%
1–3 year Treasuries Short duration +0.2%
7–10 year Treasuries Intermediate +0.0%
Credit

The gap between investment grade and high yield is the market’s price of credit risk.

Municipals Tax-exempt +0.3%
Investment-grade corporates IG −0.5%
High-yield corporates Sub-IG −2.0%
Broad & international
International ex-US Hedged +0.5%
US aggregate Whole US market −0.0%
Emerging market USD debt Hard currency −1.8%
Returns are index-tracking fund prices, so they include coupon reinvestment but not the fund’s own fees.
Commodities

Energy, metals and agriculture

Front-month futures settlement prices, with the change on the day and over thirty sessions.

Energy
Natural gas
3.05$/MMBtu
+9.08% 30d +7.7%
Brent crude
111.7$/bbl
−1.30% 30d +6.8%
WTI crude
103.3$/bbl
+3.82% 30d +3.2%
Precious & industrial metals
Copper
6.51$/lb
+2.28% 30d +0.6%
Gold
4,008$/oz
−1.29% 30d −9.1%
Platinum
1,562$/oz
−0.33% 30d −12.9%
Silver
53.95$/oz
−1.49% 30d −16.4%
Agriculture
Wheat
625.0US¢/bu
+0.04% 30d −11.6%
Currencies

Cross rates

Daily reference rates as at 2026-10-23. The trend column shows the last 30 published observations.

PairRate1 day30 days30-day trend
EUR/USD 1.1193 −0.11% −3.64%
GBP/USD 1.3368 −0.06% −1.12%
USD/JPY 156.8 −0.16% +1.70%
USD/CHF 0.82435 +0.28% +1.52%
AUD/USD 0.70224 +0.15% −2.26%
USD/CAD 1.3995 −0.28% +1.30%
EUR/GBP 0.83728 −0.05% −2.55%
EUR/JPY 175.51 −0.26% −2.00%
Headlines

What moved the story

Central bank releases and financial press, ranked by relevance and recency. Links open at the publisher; Meridian neither hosts nor endorses their content.

  1. Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-10-22 08:00 UTC
  2. Piero Cipollone: Interview with Milano Finanza
    Central bank European Central Bank 2026-10-24 06:00 UTC
  3. ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – September 2026
    Central bank European Central Bank 2026-10-23 08:00 UTC
  4. Kospi Seeks Direction Ahead of Fed FOMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Earnings - bloomingbit
    News aggregator 2026-10-25 02:29 UTC
  5. French government and corporate bond yields are converging
    Financial Times 2026-10-24 09:30 UTC
  6. Persistent Oil Prices Threaten Inflation Outlook
    Bloomberg 2026-10-24 13:19 UTC
  7. BC’s Left-Wing Leader Loses to Conservatives in Vote He Called
    Bloomberg 2026-10-25 04:08 UTC
  8. Brazil Election: Lula Rallies Supporters for One Last Comeback
    Bloomberg 2026-10-25 02:02 UTC
  9. Sri Lanka’s property boom gives Chinese developers hope. But familiar risks linger
    South China Morning Post 2026-10-25 01:00 UTC
  10. Financial System Report (October 2026)
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-10-23 06:00 UTC
  11. Regulators unveil plans to simplify Senior Manager and Certification Regime
    Central bank Bank of England 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC
  12. Minutes of the Securities Lending Committee meeting – September 2026
    Central bank Bank of England 2026-10-22 15:35 UTC
  13. Developments in Real Exports and Real Imports
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-10-22 07:00 UTC
  14. ‘Total Meltdown’ in Riskiest Debt Unnerves Market: Credit Weekly
    Bloomberg 2026-10-24 15:21 UTC
  15. Jio IPO GMP today: All eyes on telecom major’s mega listing this week. What is grey market premium signalling?
    The Economic Times 2026-10-25 04:40 UTC
  16. IDFC First Bank Q2 profit nearly triples to Rs 1,045 crore
    The Economic Times 2026-10-25 04:11 UTC
  17. Post Jio boost: 5 IPOs to raise Rs 2,581 crore next week alongside India's biggest listing
    The Economic Times 2026-10-25 04:00 UTC
  18. Sebi to revamp short-selling, securities lending rules
    The Economic Times 2026-10-25 03:58 UTC
Sources & method

Everything here comes from public data

No commercial data terminal, subscription feed or third-party probability estimate is used anywhere on this page.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York — policy rates
  • European Central Bank — policy rates
  • Bank of England — policy rates
  • Bank of Japan — policy rates
  • U.S. Department of the Treasury — yield curves
  • European Central Bank (AAA-rated euro area government bonds) — yield curves
  • Japan Ministry of Finance — yield curves
  • People's Bank of China — policy rate (maintained)
  • Reserve Bank of India — policy rate (maintained)
  • Banco Central do Brasil — policy rates
  • South African Reserve Bank — policy rates
  • World Bank — macroeconomic indicators
  • European Central Bank reference rates (via Frankfurter) — exchange rates
  • Public market data (index, fund and futures closing prices) — equity indices and sector performance
  • Central bank and financial-press RSS feeds — headlines

The directional call for each developed market is computed from the published curve using the method shown on its card. Industry performance uses tracking funds as proxies. Emerging-market policy rates are read live where a machine-readable feed exists and maintained by hand where it does not — every card says which.

This page is prepared for training and research use. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not a system of record.