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Market monitor

What the markets are pricing

Rates, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies — from public official data, refreshed automatically. Study material, not investment advice.

Updated 2026-09-10 01:25 UTC Refreshes every 3 hours · next at 2026-09-10 04:25 UTC
The brief

Curves price higher rates in 4 of 4 major economies

Across the four major central banks, United States, Euro area, United Kingdom and Japan are priced for higher rates. By industry over the past month, Europe basic resources led at +16.3% while China technology lagged at −7.1%. Across fixed income, High-yield corporates returned −0.2% over thirty days against −1.9% for 20+ year treasuries. In commodities, WTI crude rose +21.8% over the month and Natural gas fell +5.0%. Policy rates across the emerging markets covered stand at China 3.00%, India 5.50%, Brazil 14.00% and South Africa 7.00%. In currencies, USD/JPY showed the largest move on the day at 0.67% weaker.

  • United States: Federal funds (effective) at 3.63%, with the US Treasury bill and note curve implying +36bp over 1y.
  • Euro area: Deposit facility rate at 2.25%, with the AAA-rated euro area government curve implying +34bp over 1y.
  • United Kingdom: Bank Rate at 3.75%, with the SONIA overnight index swap curve implying +42bp over 1y.
  • Japan: Overnight call rate (target) at 0.75%, with the Japanese government bond curve implying +81bp over 1y.
  • United States: Energy leads at +11.0%, Utilities lags at −4.9%.
  • Europe: Basic resources leads at +16.3%, Retail lags at −4.6%.
  • China: Mainland A-shares (CSI 300) leads at −2.0%, Technology lags at −7.1%.
  • Bank of Japan: Regular Derivatives Market Statistics in Japan
  • The Economic Times: US stocks today: US stocks retreat as oil crosses $100, yields rise ahead of inflation data
Assembled automatically from the data below. ANTHROPIC_API_KEY not set — showing the computed summary.
Developed markets · policy expectations

Cut, hold or hike

These are curve-implied estimates, not probabilities. Each measures the change already priced between a near point and a later point on the same published curve — the slope a market quotes is the expectation it holds. Not forecasts, not a house view, and no substitute for the central banks' own guidance.

United States

Federal Reserve
Hikes priced
3.63% Federal funds (effective) · 2026-09-08
+36bp implied over 1y (1.4 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 4.01% +20bp 0.8
1y 4.17% +36bp 1.4
How this is derived

Change implied between the 1-month bill and the 6- and 12-month points of the Treasury curve.

Curve as at 2026-09-09.

Euro area

European Central Bank
Hikes priced
2.25% Deposit facility rate
+34bp implied over 1y (1.3 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 2.58% +15bp 0.6
1y 2.77% +34bp 1.3
How this is derived

Change implied between the 3-month and the 6- and 12-month points of the AAA euro area curve.

Curve as at 2026-09-08.

United Kingdom

Bank of England
Hikes priced
3.75% Bank Rate · 2026-09-08
+42bp implied over 1y (1.7 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 3.94% +20bp 0.8
1y 4.16% +42bp 1.7
How this is derived

Change implied between the 1-month and the 6- and 12-month points of the SONIA OIS curve — the instrument that most directly prices Bank Rate.

Curve as at 2026-09-08.

Japan

Bank of Japan
Hikes priced
0.75% Overnight call rate (target) · 2026-01-23
+81bp implied over 1y (3.2 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
1y 1.56% +81bp 3.2
2y 1.83% +108bp 4.3
How this is derived

The 1- and 2-year JGB yields measured against the current policy rate. Unlike the other three, this comparison spans two different instruments, so it also carries a term premium — read it as direction, not as a quantity.

Because this comparison spans two instruments rather than two points on one, the figure is not directly comparable with the other three cards.

Maintained figure — this central bank publishes no machine-readable policy-rate feed.

Curve as at 2026-09-09.

Emerging markets

China, India, Brazil and South Africa

Where a central bank publishes machine-readable data it is read live; where it does not — China, India — the policy rate is a maintained figure, labelled as such with the date it was last checked. Growth figures are annual and released with a lag, so each carries its year.

China

People's Bank of China
Maintained
3.00% 1-year Loan Prime Rate · since 2026-06-22
Maintained figure, checked 2026-08-01 — no machine-readable feed is published. Verify at source
Consumer prices, annual
0.06% 2025
GDP growth
5.0% 2025
USD/CNY
6.71 −0.9% 30d
Shanghai Composite +3.3%Hang Seng +0.0%

India

Reserve Bank of India
Maintained
5.50% Policy repo rate · since 2026-06-06
Maintained figure, checked 2026-08-01 — no machine-readable feed is published. Verify at source
Consumer prices, annual
2.40% 2025
GDP growth
7.6% 2025
USD/INR
95.11 −0.8% 30d
Nifty 50 −1.5%

Brazil

Banco Central do Brasil
Live
14.00% Policy rate · as at 2026-09-10
IPCA, 12-month
4.44% 2026-07-01
GDP growth
2.3% 2025
USD/BRL
5.09 +0.1% 30d
Bovespa +5.1%

South Africa

South African Reserve Bank
Live
7.00% Policy rate · as at 2026-09-09
Consumer prices, annual
3.21% 2025
GDP growth
1.1% 2025
USD/ZAR
16.04 −4.2% 30d
Equities

Stocks and equity indices

Closing levels in local currency, with the change on the day and over thirty sessions. The industry breakdown for each of these markets is in the next card.

Equity volatility 16.46 −20.3%
Rate volatility 76.74 +0.9%
US 10-year yield 4.84 +5.1%
S&P 500
United States
7,636USD
−0.48% 30d +2.8%
Euro Stoxx 50
Euro area
6,413EUR
+0.14% 30d +2.0%
FTSE 100
United Kingdom
10,812GBP
−0.10% 30d +0.3%
Nikkei 225
Japan
64,310JPY
−1.47% 30d +3.1%
Shanghai Composite
China
3,941CNY
+0.20% 30d +3.3%
Hang Seng
Hong Kong
25,317HKD
−0.38% 30d +0.0%
Nifty 50
India
23,635INR
−0.61% 30d −1.5%
Bovespa
Brazil
185,629BRL
−0.93% 30d +5.1%
Industry decomposition

Which industries are carrying each market

Thirty-day performance by industry, decomposed per equity index — American industries measured against the S&P 500, European against STOXX Europe 600, Chinese against the large-cap China index. A sector that beat the US market may still have lagged its own. Each industry is represented by a liquid fund that tracks it: a transparent proxy, not constituent-weighted index sector returns, which are licensed and not publicly available.

United States · S&P 500
S&P 500 +2.8%

The full eleven-sector breakdown, measured against the S&P 500.

Energy +11.0% +8.2%
Technology +7.8% +5.0%
Communication services +3.6% +0.8%
Consumer discretionary +2.8% +0.0%
Health care +2.3% −0.5%
Materials +1.1% −1.7%
Financials +0.7% −2.1%
Consumer staples −1.6% −4.4%
Real estate −4.1% −6.9%
Industrials & manufacturing −4.8% −7.6%
Utilities −4.9% −7.7%
Europe · STOXX Europe 600
STOXX Europe 600 +0.7%

European industries measured against STOXX Europe 600, not against the US market.

Basic resources +16.3% +15.6%
Oil & gas +8.5% +7.8%
Technology +5.6% +5.0%
Banks +4.6% +3.9%
Chemicals +2.6% +1.9%
Automobiles & parts +2.6% +1.9%
Construction & materials +0.0% −0.7%
Retail −4.6% −5.3%
China · China large cap
China large cap −0.8%

Chinese industries measured against the large-cap China index.

Mainland A-shares (CSI 300) −2.0% −1.2%
Consumer discretionary −4.8% −4.0%
Internet −6.1% −5.3%
Technology −7.1% −6.4%
Cross-border themes

Industries that do not belong to one market’s sector scheme, measured against the S&P 500.

Semiconductors +4.6% +1.8%
Fintech +4.1% +1.3%
AI & robotics +3.7% +0.9%
Clean energy +2.8% +0.0%
Infrastructure & construction −4.6% −7.4%
Industry headlines
Bars show the 30-day change. The right-hand figure is performance relative to that market’s own index over the same period.
Fixed income

Bond indices

Thirty-day total return by segment. Government bonds are grouped by maturity because duration is what makes them move; credit is split by rating, and the gap between investment grade and high yield is the market’s price of credit risk.

Government, by maturity

The longer the maturity, the more a given move in yields is worth.

1–3 year Treasuries Short duration −0.3%
Inflation-linked (TIPS) Real yield −0.3%
7–10 year Treasuries Intermediate −1.2%
20+ year Treasuries Long duration −1.9%
Credit

The gap between investment grade and high yield is the market’s price of credit risk.

High-yield corporates Sub-IG −0.2%
Investment-grade corporates IG −1.0%
Municipals Tax-exempt −1.7%
Broad & international
Emerging market USD debt Hard currency −0.6%
US aggregate Whole US market −0.8%
International ex-US Hedged −1.1%
Returns are index-tracking fund prices, so they include coupon reinvestment but not the fund’s own fees.
Commodities

Energy, metals and agriculture

Front-month futures settlement prices, with the change on the day and over thirty sessions.

Energy
WTI crude
96.57$/bbl
+3.81% 30d +21.8%
Brent crude
101.3$/bbl
+3.44% 30d +20.5%
Natural gas
2.80$/MMBtu
−4.15% 30d +5.0%
Precious & industrial metals
Silver
68.04$/oz
+2.63% 30d +18.8%
Platinum
1,887$/oz
+2.10% 30d +17.0%
Gold
4,456$/oz
+1.41% 30d +10.4%
Copper
6.85$/lb
+1.63% 30d +8.3%
Agriculture
Wheat
726.3US¢/bu
−0.55% 30d +9.6%
Currencies

Cross rates

Daily reference rates as at 2026-09-09. The trend column shows the last 30 published observations.

PairRate1 day30 days30-day trend
EUR/USD 1.1652 +0.33% +2.31%
GBP/USD 1.3565 +0.14% +1.86%
USD/JPY 153.27 −0.67% −6.34%
USD/CHF 0.80707 −0.55% −0.99%
AUD/USD 0.72247 +0.14% +3.22%
USD/CAD 1.3768 −0.27% −2.39%
EUR/GBP 0.85898 +0.18% +0.44%
EUR/JPY 178.59 −0.34% −4.17%
Headlines

What moved the story

Central bank releases and financial press, ranked by relevance and recency. Links open at the publisher; Meridian neither hosts nor endorses their content.

  1. Regular Derivatives Market Statistics in Japan
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-09-09 23:50 UTC
  2. US stocks today: US stocks retreat as oil crosses $100, yields rise ahead of inflation data
    The Economic Times 2026-09-09 20:14 UTC
  3. Asian Stocks Fall as Oil Stokes Inflation Fears: Markets Wrap
    Bloomberg 2026-09-09 22:13 UTC
  4. Oil’s surge back above $100 fuels fresh inflation fears at a crucial time for interest rates
    MarketWatch 2026-09-09 20:36 UTC
  5. Christine Lagarde: The choice facing Europeans
    Central bank European Central Bank 2026-09-09 17:00 UTC
  6. Global Market Today: Asian stocks to fall as oil stokes inflation fears
    The Economic Times 2026-09-10 01:03 UTC
  7. Warning against Scams Using the Bank of Japan's Name
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-09-09 01:00 UTC
  8. Dow Jones| Nasdaq | S&P 500 | US Stock Market Today |Highlights: US stocks fall as oil tops $100, Treasury yields hit 2023 high
    The Economic Times 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC
  9. China-US 10-Year Yield Gap Widens to Largest on Record
    Bloomberg 2026-09-10 00:02 UTC
  10. Gold Steadies Near $4,400 as Traders Weigh Fed Rate-Hike Path
    Bloomberg 2026-09-09 23:33 UTC
  11. ‘I Am the House Now’: Bessent Challenges Traders on Yen
    Bloomberg 2026-09-10 00:36 UTC
  12. You should always have energy stocks in your 401(k). Yes, even when oil is at $100.
    MarketWatch 2026-09-09 20:27 UTC
  13. India bonds fall as oil tops $100/bbl, reviving inflation concerns
    The Economic Times 2026-09-09 12:07 UTC
  14. Global Money Trickles Back to Indonesia as Markets Recover
    Bloomberg 2026-09-10 00:00 UTC
  15. Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for Sept. 10
    Bloomberg 2026-09-09 22:04 UTC
  16. Australian Property Stocks Vulnerable Following Bathla Collapse
    Bloomberg 2026-09-09 21:00 UTC
  17. Treasury yields jump as Bessent’s $6bn buyback plan disappoints investors
    Financial Times 2026-09-09 18:22 UTC
  18. Bessent dares traders to bet against Yen: ‘I am the house now’
    The Economic Times 2026-09-10 01:04 UTC
Sources & method

Everything here comes from public data

No commercial data terminal, subscription feed or third-party probability estimate is used anywhere on this page.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York — policy rates
  • European Central Bank — policy rates
  • Bank of England — policy rates
  • Bank of Japan — policy rates
  • U.S. Department of the Treasury — yield curves
  • European Central Bank (AAA-rated euro area government bonds) — yield curves
  • Japan Ministry of Finance — yield curves
  • People's Bank of China — policy rate (maintained)
  • Reserve Bank of India — policy rate (maintained)
  • Banco Central do Brasil — policy rates
  • South African Reserve Bank — policy rates
  • World Bank — macroeconomic indicators
  • European Central Bank reference rates (via Frankfurter) — exchange rates
  • Public market data (index, fund and futures closing prices) — equity indices and sector performance
  • Central bank and financial-press RSS feeds — headlines

The directional call for each developed market is computed from the published curve using the method shown on its card. Industry performance uses tracking funds as proxies. Emerging-market policy rates are read live where a machine-readable feed exists and maintained by hand where it does not — every card says which.

This page is prepared for training and research use. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not a system of record.